A look at the geographic distribution of his gains can be helpful in understanding mathematics of the last election. Of 146 seats in 10 states (Uttarakhand 5, Himachal 4, Haryana 10, Delhi 7, Rajasthan 25, Gujarat 26, Madhya Pradesh 29, Chhattisgarh 12, Jharkhand 14 and Assam 14) he had gained 136 seats. From 196 seats in four states (Maharashtra 48, Karnataka 28, UP 80 and Bihar 40) he had 139 seats. Thus 14 states had given him 275. Remaining 8 seats to make up his final tally came from 202 seats from remaining states and Union Territories. The question whether he can perform the same miracle in this election needs a closer scrutiny.

The assembly elections in seven states in 2017 and 2018 and seven bye-elections to Lok Sabha from four BJP ruled states last year indicate a heavy erosion of his hold over the rural voters. It is doubtful that he can obtain the similar outcome as in the last election. He will need to make up the shortfall in states that had given him overwhelming support. But the states under command of consolidated state parties like Bengal, Odisha, Andhra, Tamil Nadu and Telangana or Kerala under two regional alliances without the BJP in either do not holdout a high hope to allow him to make good the losses in areas that had given him overwhelming command

The arithmetic does not seem to ensure his return. Most of the political observers do not dispute it but point out that the elections are not merely mathematics. There is also chemistry. There were catalysts in the last elections. He is now painted as the only towering political personality with none other emerging as the capable politician who can challenge him. He emerged as a personality only after his unprecedented electoral performance. Before the polls, he was merely known as the Gujarat chief minister. We have a similar precedent, a no-personality before the 1971 election, Indira Gandhi was also converted into a towering personality with a decisive victory over Pakistan and Nuclear fusion in May 1974. Yet she was drowned in 1977. It would be argued that there is a vast transformation in public mind. The third generation since then as voters has a different perception of politics.

There is no doubt that four decades has improved the literacy and reduced poverty. 96 per cent children were going to school in 2014 suggesting metamorphosis of poor minds. They were no more worried over bread for their children. They were seeking dignity of life for their next generation. With unconventional political approach Narendra Modi promised them better days ahead but only after they toil. He did not offer them inducements. He also promised no charity though promised accelerated growth rate to improve employment situation for
them. In his unconventional approach was the catalyst that forced the chemistry to deliver or rather reject the conventional approaches of promises of more charity. The changes in popular view had gone overhead others.

Modi had not only moved away from the conventional approach but had also shunned the use of the failed agenda of the BJP for seven previous elections. Not even once did he refer to the temple issue or given up his priority of development over all sentimental considerations. His promise was of Modi government with no assigned role for the party. Now he has to invent new catalysts to work his chemistry with the disappointed and dejected young generation that constitutes more than half the electorate. Others definitely do not have even idea of working of the electoral chemistry. They are still involved in old concepts of electoral politics.

But then Narendra Modi is also not in a position to break out of the Chakrvyuah erected around him with sudden eruption of demand for the Ram Temple. And he has very little in his hand to prove that he was able to deliver any of his electoral promise. He does not have any aces even on his sleeve.

The coming election in two months will be of a different kind. Majority of voters are those who have been disappointed knowing that their preference for unconventional political entity has not succeeded to deliver them the promised heaven. The election would have different chemicals and demand a new catalyst as old one has been used up. That does not mean he has lost the battle. But there are many slips between the cup and his lips. To be from the electorate independent of other forces within he needs the authority to select the candidates who will remain loyal to him and would not look outside the party. It is also clear that he cannot again attempt to allow the impression that he would deliver the one man rule. The country and the government would be back to conventional coalition politics. He lost also the ace of giving the impression that he would be able to form the government even if he failed to get a clear majority for his party. Most of associates have snapped their ties. Other are also on the verge of quitting or have become burden as they would not be an asset like Akali Dal in Punjab.

Yes. He is a tall political personality but it entails more demands and convincing assurances that he would be in a position to deliver. He will need a new catalyst for the electoral chemistry to deliver verdict in his favour.